How the 2023-24 Premier League table is really shaping up

“Another international break, already? Haven’t we just had one?”

Fear not. While there isn’t top-tier club action this weekend, it does give us another opportunity to check on the state of the Premier League.

We are already 21 per cent of the way through the 2023-24 campaign, but there is plenty more drama, VAR controversy, and elongated stoppage time to unfold.

GO DEEPER

More goals, more drama - the increase in added time is more than a box-ticking exercise

With that in mind, a glance at the league table after eight games is still unlikely to reveal too many reliable clues about the final standings, but we can start to put things into a little more context from the games played so far.

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To do this, we can look at each side’s expected goal (xG) difference per game to assess the quality of chances they have created and conceded across the first chunk of the season.

With fewer than 10 games played, this is a more reliable method to assess the performance of a team by considering the intent from each side, placing less importance on the unlucky deflection or — cough — bad refereeing decisions that might have influenced the result.

It helps us to look at a side’s process rather than outcome, in simple terms.

For those asking “what about game state?” when considering this metric: we appreciate you, we love you, and we admire your way of thinking.

Unfortunately, things are so statistically noisy at this stage of the season that it is difficult to reliably slice and dice the data in that way. Keep it in the back of your mind when looking at the numbers, though.

So, let’s dive in.

As you can see below, Manchester City’s dominance continues in both boxes but notably, they have the strongest defence in the league — conceding just 0.7 xG per game so far.

Yes, they are heading into the break on back-to-back losses in the league, but two of the three goals conceded against Wolverhampton and Arsenal took wicked deflections on their way.

While Pep Guardiola’s team have “plummeted” down to third in the actual table, the message is obvious. No need to panic, City fans.

Despite lying eighth in the Premier League, Newcastle’s attack is purring with the volume of chances they have created — albeit with a healthy boost from their 8-0 thrashing of Sheffield United, a game in which they generated 3.9 xG.

Interestingly, Tottenham Hotspur sit at the top of the actual table, but their underlying numbers don’t quite match their league position.

Sure, Ange Postecoglou’s team have found a new creative spark in the form of James Maddison, but Spurs have given up some big chances to the likes of Luton’s Elijah Adebayo, Liverpool’s Luis Diaz and Arsenal’s Gabriel Jesus in recent weeks — all of which were not converted (or awarded) but could have easily changed the course of those games.

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It’s not that Spurs have been lucky defensively, but their current xG conceded of 1.4 per game is only the joint-seventh best in the league so far — and one to keep an eye out for.

At the other end, Vincent Kompany’s Burnley and Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth are among the bottom three teams for xG difference, and will need to turn the tide quickly by improving in both boxes — Burnley’s 2-1 win at Luton is the only victory between them all season.

However, it is worth contextualising the tricky fixture schedule that both sides have faced in their opening eight games.

To do this, we can return to Opta’s Power Rankings — a global ranking system containing more than 13,000 clubs rated between zero (lowest) and 100 (highest) — to look at the strength of the opponent faced, at the time they faced them.

And looking at the graphic below, we can see that there is reason to have some sympathy for Bournemouth after their tough start to the season, with no side having a worse fixture-difficulty score than Iraola’s team.

Playing Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Brighton and Spurs in your first eight games is a tough run of games for any side, let alone a team looking to change their identity under a new manager.

With a high-intensity and direct style of play being implemented on the south coast, our advice to fans would be to ride this early-season slump out and #trusttheprocess.

Meanwhile, Burnley’s average opponent strength of 89 means they have had the fourth-highest fixture difficulty so far, with few supporters expecting a lucrative points haul from their clashes against Chelsea, Newcastle, Manchester United, Spurs and Manchester City as five of their opening eight opponents.

Kompany has tempered expectations among the fans, identifying the value of context in the early stages of the season.

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“I can’t say I spend much time looking at the league at this stage. I’ve looked at the fixtures for sure,” Kompany said. “We got four (points) out of six against Luton and Nottingham Forest, which were the only two teams where those types of games we have to get results.”

Couldn’t have put it better if we tried, Vincent.

At the other end of the scale, the positivity emerging from Everton’s haul of two wins from their last three league games might need to be attenuated by the fact they have — statistically — had the easiest start to the campaign among all sides.

Similarly, Manchester City’s Rodri-less stutter is unlikely to continue, but their opening fixtures have been among the easiest in the league, with Arsenal and Newcastle being the only two opponents they have faced who finished in the top nine last season.

Sandwiched between City and Everton are Chelsea, whose excuses might be a bit hollow when attempting to justify their three losses and two draws in their opening eight games — having just experienced the second-easiest start to the season, statistically.

The real tests are just around the corner for Mauricio Pochettino’s side, with their next five games against Arsenal, Brentford, Spurs, Manchester City and Newcastle. In fact, no side have a tougher upcoming schedule than Chelsea, with an average opponent strength of 92.9 according to Opta’s rankings.

Manchester City and Everton’s schedules are also among the top four most difficult, showing how the fixture computer can dictate the narrative around a club.

Meanwhile, Arsenal have an opportunity to keep the momentum building, with Mikel Arteta’s side having the third-easiest run-in to come in the next five fixtures — with Chelsea and Newcastle likely to provide the sternest test for three points along the way.

The point is, there are plenty of things to consider when assessing the performances of each side across their opening eight fixtures.

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While you might be spending a disproportionate amount of time staring at the Premier League table during the international break, the advice is to not overthink it.

Add a pinch of context, look back at recent fixtures and think forward to those coming up — the true shape of the 2023-24 season is yet to reveal itself.

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